More than 50,000 people are estimated to have died from heat-related causes in European cities this summer, according to new peer-reviewed research published today in the journal Nature Health. Scientists say the death toll marks the highest heat-related mortality in Europe in at least 26 years, with the majority of fatalities concentrated in urban areas.
The studies, conducted by researchers at Imperial College London and reported by outlets including CNN and The New York Times, attribute about two-thirds of these deaths—over 32,600—to climate change driven by fossil fuel pollution. The analysis covered 854 cities across 30 European countries, representing roughly 40% of the population in the countries studied.
Researchers used statistical models to estimate excess mortality during the repeated heat waves that swept Europe between June and August. The models took into account factors such as local demographics, socioeconomic conditions, and access to health services. The estimates are not based on official death certificates, but the methodology has previously produced results consistent with national health authority reports.
“I think we can be quite confident in stating that the summer of 2026 is likely to have been the worst on record for heat-related mortality across much of Europe,” said Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and lead author of both studies, as quoted by CNN. Scientists compared observed temperatures with those that would have been expected in a world without climate change to determine the impact of human-caused warming.
According to the Associated Press, the death toll is 71% higher than the previous record, set in 2022, when just under 30,000 heat-related deaths were recorded in the same group of cities. The researchers noted that the true number of deaths is likely even higher, as the studies did not include a deadly heat wave in May or account for rural areas and smaller towns outside the 854 cities analyzed.
Experts say the findings highlight the growing threat posed by extreme heat in Europe, where many cities lack widespread air conditioning and populations are aging. The studies underscore the urgent need for adaptation measures, such as improved urban planning, expanded cooling infrastructure, and targeted support for vulnerable groups.
Europe has experienced a series of increasingly severe heat waves in recent years, a trend scientists link to global warming driven by the burning of coal, oil, and gas. The continent’s urban areas are particularly at risk due to the so-called “urban heat island” effect, which can amplify high temperatures.
Researchers warn that unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, the frequency and severity of deadly heat waves in Europe are likely to increase. The studies call for immediate action from policymakers to protect public health and reduce the risks associated with extreme temperatures.
Further analysis is expected as national health authorities review official mortality data from the summer. Scientists say more comprehensive figures, including rural areas and additional months, could reveal an even greater impact from this year’s heat waves.
The image accompanying this article is an AI-generated illustrative depiction inspired by the actual scene of the event.
